66 Days Until the Election: Dangerous turn for Fidesz as conflict with Roma voters escalates

Tisza on 53% among committed voters, Fidesz on 37%

Zoltán Szalay

In our weekly Thursday series, we summarise and explain the most important public affairs stories from Hungary over the past seven days. We are accompanying our readers along the historic road to the April 2026 election – a journey unlike anything our region has experienced in the past decade and a half. This week, we cover the following topics:

• Viktor Orbán battles for Roma votes

• Russia is not backing down

• Orbán’s name surfaces in the Epstein files

• Tisza’s momentum shows no sign of ebbing

Viktor Orbán battles for Roma votes

As Hungary’s election campaign enters its final stretch, a battle has begun for the votes of the Roma minority. For Fidesz, the key question is whether it can hold on to voters who may prove crucial to victory. A significant share of Hungary’s Roma community – estimated at between 600,000 and 800,000 people in the 10 million Hungary – has supported Fidesz in recent years. That may now be changing.

On 22 January, János Lázár, the minister for construction and transport and, alongside Viktor Orbán, Fidesz’s second most prominent campaign figure, made a remark widely seen as offensive to Roma people at a public forum in Balatonalmádi. As we reported last week, Lázár said that, in the absence of migrants, Hungary’s Roma constituted an “internal reserve” and that since Hungarians were unwilling to do such jobs, Roma people could clean the “shit-filled toilets” on InterCity trains.

Lázár later apologised, but the affair has continued to generate waves ever since and has been one of the campaign’s dominant themes for the past two weeks.

A few days after the remarks triggered outrage, Viktor Orbán himself stepped in to contain the damage. On 29 January, he posted that while driving he usually listens to Dankó Radio, which mainly plays Roma music, and the following day he sat down for a conversation with Evelin Gáspár, former reality TV star, now the Roma-origin assistant of foreign minister Péter Szijjártó. Just to show he talks to Roma people, and listens to their music.

The police contradicted the minister – a rare occurrence in Hungary

The backlash, however, did not subside. One of Lázár’s campaign events in Gyöngyös, in north-eastern Hungary, was disrupted by Roma protesters who waved red cards at the minister, called for his resignation and chanted “dirty Fidesz”. At first Lázár responded patiently, but soon he began shouting, insisting that the protesters had been hired by opposition leader Péter Magyar, whom he accused of trying to create chaos.

Fidesz then went on the counter-offensive, accusing the Roma protesters of being criminals paid by Magyar’s Tisza party. Viktor Orbán himself adopted this narrative. “The criminal record is extensive: disorderly conduct, robbery, embezzlement, assault, sexual violence, extortion, homicide. These are the apostles of Tisza’s love,” the Prime Minister wrote on Facebook. In a video, Lázár linked specific individuals to specific crimes.

How did they know who are these people?

When asked how he had obtained such personal data, Lázár said the police had checked the identities of those who disrupted the protest and, since the police are a state body, he could know these details as a member of the government. On Wednesday, the police denied this. As the organisers had not requested their assistance, no identity checks were carried out on site, and no audio or video recordings were made, they said. This effectively confirmed that the minister had lied about the source of the information.

Human rights organisations have pointed out that Lázár could only have obtained these personal details unlawfully. Amnesty International is filing a complaint with the chief prosecutor over the matter.

Quick take: It is still difficult to say how great an impact this issue will have on the campaign, or whether it will shape its further course. What is certain is that János Lázár – whom Viktor Orbán himself pushed to the forefront of the campaign – has been forced repeatedly to explain himself in public over the affair. The story reached people who do not normally follow day-to-day politics, as popular Roma influencers and singers also reacted to Lázár’s remarks. It cannot be ruled out, therefore, that Fidesz could lose a critical number of voters from the Roma community.

Elections are closer, Russia is not backing down

A recurring question in connection with Hungary’s election campaign is whether we should expect attempts at Russian interference, and if so, of what kind. The Political Capital thinktank has now published a comprehensive assessment showing that such influence is not only under way but has just shifted into a higher gear.

What points to this, according to Political Capital? For one thing, the Hungarian government has made unusually sharp statements directed at the Ukrainian government. Speaking in Thailand, Péter Szijjártó said it was “clear who will emerge victorious from the war in Ukraine, so Brussels is completely wasting billions of euros, as this only prolongs the killing”.

At the same time, disinformation campaigns are under way seeking to highlight supposed links between Péter Magyar and the Ukrainian leadership. One false claim alleged that Ukraine was planning a terrorist attack to influence the Hungarian campaign; another claimed that Magyar had smuggled $16.7m in cash from Ukraine to the UK.

According to Political Capital, preparations for so-called false-flag operations are also under way, including the distribution of bomb threats written in Ukrainian to schools and other public institutions.

The thinktank notes that last year Vladimir Putin openly backed Viktor Orbán’s re-election, while Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, wrote that “Brussels” wanted to remove the Hungarian government – one of Fidesz’s core campaign messages.

Orbán’s name surfaces in the Epstein files

After the US Department of Justice released further documents from investigations into the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, who died in 2019, it quickly became clear that the case also had central and eastern European connections. Former Slovak foreign minister Miroslav Lajčák was forced to resign from his post as a prime ministerial adviser after it emerged that he had exchanged explicit messages with Epstein. The files also contained the name of Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán – albeit indirectly – as reported by Válasz Online.

It was Steve Bannon who mentioned Orbán in conversations with Epstein. Bannon served briefly as an adviser to Donald Trump during his first term, until he was dismissed. In 2018 – by then no longer working at the White House – Bannon exchanged text messages with Epstein while travelling around Europe. Known as a key figure on the US far right, he was involved in organising a faction of Europe’s far-right forces. The Patriots for Europe party family was only formally established years later, in 2024, by Orbán and his allies.

For Epstein, the creation of this group was primarily of business interest. Bannon dangled the prospect that if they gained serious support in the European parliament, “we can stop any crypto regulation or whatever we want”. Epstein had approached Bannon precisely to lobby on behalf of cryptocurrencies, and shortly afterwards Bannon appeared as a guest at one of Orbán’s conferences in Budapest.

Poll of the week: Tisza continues to have the advantage

On Tuesday, one of Hungary’s most respected polling firms, the 21 Research Centre, published its latest survey, conducted between 28 January and 2 February. The most striking finding is that the balance of power has not changed significantly compared with the previous month.

Just over two months before the election, the poll puts Tisza on 53% among committed voters, Fidesz on 37%, with the far-right Mi Hazánk movement also set to enter parliament on 5%. At the 21 Research Centre, these ratios have barely shifted since April 2025 – almost a year ago (Tisza has strengthened by two percentage points within the margin of error, while Fidesz is at virtually the same level as then).

According to the pollsters’ calculations, this result would translate into around 116 seats for Tisza, 75 for Fidesz and eight for Mi Hazánk, giving Tisza a comfortable majority in the National Assembly.

Speaking on ATV on Tuesday, Péter Magyar said he was not aware of a single constituency where Fidesz had a lead of more than three percentage points. “In the vast majority of those we hold,” he said, “we are either well ahead or leading by a convincing margin.”

In an article published on Monday, the news site 444 cited government-adjacent sources as saying that Fidesz’s own internal polling also shows Tisza in the lead, although the governing party is still hoping that this deficit can be clawed back in the final sprint of the campaign.